Thursday, April 19, 2007

Pfizer - Exubera: 20:20 hindsight


Fred Cohen writes:

Now that sales are flagging, analysts of all stripes are writing that they long ago knew this was going to happen. This Monday-morning quarterbacking is known in behavioral circles as hindsight bias, or, as I like to call it, bullshit.


What nearly every stock analyst and pundit wrote while Exubera was in Phase 3 testing was that Exubera was going to be a big success. Nearly every clinical opinion leader I heard from (there were many) said the same thing.
Insider would like to remind his dear readers that his skepticism about "the bong" goes waaay back!

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